Tropical Deforestation Outlook: How Global Commodity Demand is Shaping the Future of Tropical Rainforests

Blog originally published by Profundo

This report by Profundo for Rainforest Foundation Norway provides a forward-looking analysis of market trends and commodity dynamics driving tropical deforestation across three major rainforest regions: the Amazon, the Congo Basin, and Southeast Asia-Oceania. The report examines three interconnected commercial complexes- energy systems (critical minerals, bioenergy, and fossil fuels), food systems (meat, livestock, and palm oil), and fast-turnover products (wood pulp, timber, and gold)- and assesses how demand growth, trade flows, and policy developments are likely to shape forest loss up to 2035 under different scenarios.

The analysis finds that without stronger governance and demand-side action, current trends point to a hybrid of managed transition and pressured expansion, putting thousands of square kilometres of tropical rainforest at risk. Key threats include surging mineral extraction linked to the energy transition, rising biofuel mandates, continued beef and palm oil expansion, and growing gold mining activity. The report concludes with detailed recommendations for governments, supply chain companies, and financiers to halt deforestation through binding due diligence, stronger land rights protections, and reduced resource consumption.